In an era of constrained resources and shifting geopolitics, influence is often the primary way change remains possible. A Theory of Influence provides a structured way to think more strategically about influencing work, clarifying assumptions, making people-centred change visible, and supporting learning over time. It offers practitioners a practical framework for working intentionally with people, power, and systems to contribute to change.
In this blog, Sarah Bolger, our Peacebuilding and Diplomacy Lead, offers an overview of the approach she has developed. It is based on her more comprehensive paper that explores in greater detail the origins and evolution of the Theory of Influence, the process for developing a Theory of Influence, how it can be applied in practice, and how it can support planning, monitoring, learning, and evaluation across diplomacy and international development contexts.
What is a Theory of Influence?
A Theory of Influence (ToI) is a type of Theory of Change focusing on who or what can be influenced to facilitate a desired change. It is a people-centred, systems-based approach to understanding, planning, monitoring, and learning from influencing efforts in complex political environments.
A ToI focuses first on the overarching objectives of an organisation, strategy, policy, programme or other intervention. Then, working backwards from these objectives, it identifies the approach for mapping out who or what can be influenced to facilitate the change and the relevant combination of influencing mechanisms to support this. As such, it has both influencing objectives and overarching objectives. Although influencing is a means to an end, clearly articulating ‘influencing objectives’ means that influencing goals are as clear and tangible as possible so that progress can be measured and analysed. It also means that the pathways to achieving the overarching objectives are clear, as are the roles of the different influencing mechanisms in supporting this.
There are six key areas of focus underpinning a Theory of Influence:
- People-centric approach
At the heart of a Theory of Influence is a clear people-centred logic. Influence is rarely about persuasion alone; rather, it works by shaping how people interpret issues, assess risk, and act within the constraints of their institutional roles and political environments. Over time, effective influence reshapes what feels possible, legitimate, and safe for individuals to say or do, creating the conditions for broader organisational or systemic change.
A ToI applies systems thinking to influence, focusing on people as actors embedded within interconnected political, institutional, and relational systems. Policies shift because people decide it is possible, legitimate, and safe to support a change. As a result, influence operates first at the level of how people:
- Are positioned within a system
- Interpret issues and evidence
- Assess incentives, risks, and constraints
- Decide how to act within their institutional and political roles
This does not reduce systems to individuals. Rather, it recognises that systems are made up of patterns of relationships, norms, power, and behaviour, which are sustained – and reshaped – through human action over time. A people-centred Theory of Influence makes this explicit and treats people’s and groups’ decisions as the primary unit of change.
- Importance of context
Context is critical and links to the people-centric approach. It is important to understand the ecosystem within which the organisation is working to understand who the different actors are, what their motivations are, what their objectives are and what their relationships are with each other in order to identify how they can be influenced. The combination of influencing mechanisms is context-specific as different actors respond differently to various combinations of approach.
Internal context is also important to understand what methods of influencing the organisation has at its disposal, including both financial and other soft power means such as staffing, advocacy capacity, governance structures, access to decision makers, relationships, networks, political capital, access, convening power, cultural links and diplomacy. A core purpose of a ToI is to identify which methods are likely to be most effective and why, and understand the intended synergies between these influencing mechanisms and the potential multiplier effects between them.
- Making influence visible before change
A Theory of Influence explicitly makes influence visible before change, valuing early, often invisible shifts in relationships, trust, framing, and behaviour as critical signals of influence. It sees influencing objectives as precursors to overarching objectives.
Influence is often first evident not in formal policies or institutional reform, but in more subtle, human-level changes, such as:
- Greater willingness to listen or engage
- Reframing of an issue or problem
- Increased confidence to act internally
- Shifts in informal behaviour before formal decisions
These changes are often invisible to conventional results frameworks, yet they are frequently decisive. A Theory of Influence treats them as legitimate and meaningful outcomes, recognising that human change often precedes institutional change.
- Influence as interaction, not a single method
A systems perspective also highlights that no single influencing method is sufficient. Influence emerges from the interaction of multiple levers across a system. In practice, this means understanding how different approaches combine and reinforce one another. For example:
- Transactional engagement, such as funding or technical support, may create access or opportunity.
- Relational influence, such as trust, credibility, legitimacy and long-term relationships often determines what happens next.
- Informal dialogue can unlock movement where formal processes are blocked.
A Theory of Influence helps practitioners think deliberately about combination, sequencing, and adaptation, rather than relying on a single tool or assuming linear cause-and-effect relationships.
- Supports adaptive learning in complex systems and contexts
By examining how different influencing methods interact, and how people respond within specific contexts, a Theory of Influence supports more strategic, realistic, credible, and adaptive planning and learning, particularly in politically sensitive environments. A Theory of Influence responds to this by identifying people-level outcomes and indicators that can be monitored and learned from. These may include changes in relationships, access, trust, framing, positioning, or behaviour. This links with the points above about people’s role within systems and making influencing outcomes visible as precursors to more formal, tangible change.
- Focuses on contribution rather than attribution
Influence presents well-known challenges for monitoring and evaluation. A Theory of Influence recognises that multiple actors, feedback loops, and contextual dynamics shape influencing outcomes. It is rarely possible to attribute outcomes to a single actor or intervention, and change unfolds through multiple pathways over time. A Theory of Influence responds to this by focusing on contribution rather than attribution from design through to evaluation.
If you would like to know more or discuss Theories of Influence in more detail, please contact:
Sarah Bolger, Principal Consultant and Peacebuilding and Diplomacy Lead
sarah@iodparc.com
